How much does it cost to mine one bitcoin?

Figure 1 · Bitcoin price and average production cost, 2013–present

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Logarithmic scale: each step up the axis is 10 times larger.

How to read this chart

Orange line: the market price of one bitcoin.
Green or red line: the average “all-in” cost of producing one bitcoin (electricity, hardware, upkeep). Green when producing costs less than the price (miners make money), red when it costs more (they lose money).
Grey area: the gap between the best-placed and worst-placed miners, because there is no single cost.
Vertical lines: the “halvings”. Roughly every four years, miners’ reward is cut in half.

Why the curve behaves this way

Every miner pays a different cost

A large miner with brand-new machines and cheap electricity pays nothing like a small operator running old hardware. The model captures that whole diversity, which is why the chart shows a band rather than a single line.

When the price falls, the cost follows

Mining at a loss makes no sense: when bitcoin’s price drops, the costliest miners switch their machines off. Only the most efficient keep going, so the average cost of the survivors falls. That is why the cost line seems to “follow” the price: don’t read it as a prediction.

The halving: a shock every four years

The Bitcoin protocol cuts miners’ reward in half roughly every four years. The same work suddenly produces half as many bitcoins, so the cost per coin nearly doubles overnight. You can see those steps in 2016, 2020 and 2024.