₿Bitcoin production cost

Model vs published estimates

What does it cost to mine a bitcoin? The model against JPMorgan, CoinShares and Capriole

Banks and research firms publish their own estimate of what it costs to mine one bitcoin. Here is each of them next to the model's band on the same date. On October 28, 2026, the model puts the average cost at $59,386, with a band from $47,505 to $74,398.

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Each published estimate against the model at the same date

DateSourceMeasurePublishedModel band (p10 to p90)Model averageAgainst the band
September 24, 2026JPMorganall-in cost$84,948$43,488 to $68,107$54,416above the band
June 30, 2026JPMorganall-in cost$78,000$46,638 to $70,720$57,405above the band
June 30, 2026CoinSharescash costs$75,500$46,638 to $70,720$57,405above the band
March 22, 2026Caprioleelectricity only$46,426$50,900 to $79,453$63,011below the band
March 22, 2026Caprioleall-in cost$58,032$50,900 to $79,453$63,011inside the band, −8% vs the average
December 31, 2025CoinSharescash costs$79,995$46,680 to $78,643$61,012above the band

The band runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the modelled fleet: the cheapest machines on the cheapest power at the bottom, the oldest machines on the dearest power at the top. All figures are in US dollars per bitcoin.

Why the figures differ

The model estimates the whole network: every machine, weighted by its share of the hashrate. CoinShares averages the costs reported by listed mining companies, which carry overheads the model does not see (staff, offices, financing). JPMorgan does not detail its method in the press coverage of its notes. Capriole publishes two lines: the electricity cost alone, and a full production cost. The last column of the table says where each figure falls against the band on its date.

Sources